Introduction
Scott Gordon:
George Potter is joining us from Saudi Arabia and Richard Wellington came to us from England, and so we appreciate the travels they’ve made in order to come speak to us. We did put an article about them in the Meridian Magazine. It caused quite a stir. We probably got more hits on our website from that article than many we put up in a long time, so we really appreciate that.
I also want to mention right up front that if you like what you hear, they’re also going to be speaking Friday evening, August 8th, 7:00 to 9:00 p.m. at the LDS Ward Chapel, which is at 300 North, 100 East, in American Fork. They’re going to talk more about this and put on a longer presentation. So, we’ll get just a taste of what they have.
And to give them more time, I’m just going to turn it over to them.
Introduction to the Nephi Project
George Potter:
Thank you, Scott, and FAIR. I live in the peaceful land of Saudi Arabia. I’m president of the Nephi Project. It’s a group of LDS and non-LDS who are still doing some research on Lehi’s trail in Arabia.
We’re going to pass down a little card here. If you’d like to receive an email newsletter from us, it’s free. Please sign it and send it back down the aisle. Thank you, Vicky.
You can also go to our website, which is nephro.com, and see what we’ve been doing over there.
It’s really an honor for me to speak to you today because I have my partner here. This is the first time in the U.S. I’ve ever had the chance to do a presentation with my exploring partner and dear friend Richard Wellington. It’s a real privilege for me.
Early Research in Arabia
George Potter:
Now, what were we doing in the northwest corner of Saudi Arabia where our research began? We were trying to find the Saudi Arabian or Arabian candidate for Mount Sinai, and after several attempts we found the mountain. But that led us then to a town called Al-Badʿ, which is by oral tradition the home of Jethro (see Exodus 2:16).
The assistant to the mayor of the town told us that if we were really interested in Moses, we should see the Waters of Moses on the Gulf of Aqaba.
So we traveled there, and what we found was a qualified candidate for the Valley of Lemuel (1 Nephi 2:6–7).
Why a Candidate for the Valley of Lemuel Matters
George Potter:
Now, why is that important, that we find a qualified candidate for the Valley of Lemuel?
Well, if critics of the Book of Mormon are going to find fault with it, the obvious place to start is in Jerusalem, because we have a clear point of embarkment in the Book of Mormon account. It would be very easy to start there and then follow Nephi’s writing to see if it holds up to what’s actually there in the desert.
Critics have already come out with very strong assertions:
- There are no rivers in Arabia. How could there be a River of Laman?
- There never have been any timbers or trees growing in Oman by which Nephi could build a ship (1 Nephi 18:1–2).
- There are geographical errors in the Book of Mormon.
On the other hand, if you could prove that First Nephi is an accurate historical account, then it would follow that the rest of the Book of Mormon was divinely inspired.
Departure from Jerusalem
Richard Wellington:
It’s a pleasure to be here. George and I have been trying to organize this from thousands of miles apart, so you’ll have to excuse us as we put our act together a little bit.
If you remember, returning back to Lehi’s departure from Jerusalem, we’re told that he goes into the wilderness. There are a number of routes that could have taken him to the Gulf of Aqaba, where they ended up at the Red Sea (1 Nephi 2:5–6).
Some routes traveled along the western part of the Dead Sea and down to Wadi Araba. But we will just present what we feel, because we don’t have time to go into all the details. If you need more, then by all means go into the book.
We feel that they headed immediately across the plain of Jericho and picked up the route which runs down the length of Arabia, which used to be used for trade.
Historical Precedent for Heading East
Richard Wellington:
There are a number of reasons why we believe that. First of all, we’re told that when King Zedekiah—if you remember, when Jerusalem finally fell to Nebuchadnezzar’s army as the walls were breached—he fled through the gate that was near his garden and he fled east. Because that was the quickest way out of Israelite territory, he was captured on the plains of Jericho (2 Kings 25:4–5).
We’re also told that many other residents of Judah did the same thing when Nebuchadnezzar’s army came. There seems to be a historical precedent for heading east to get away quickly.
Hugh Nibley and others, as pointed out by Kent Brown, put together an impressive array of evidence that points to Lehi’s exodus as a replication of that of the Israelites. In other words, we believe that one of the reasons why Nephi uses the Exodus as a teaching tool so often is because it’s a reproduction. It’s a mirror of the journey they took. So, it was directly relevant to Laman and Lemuel.
Suggested Route from Jerusalem
Richard Wellington:
The route that we would suggest they took brings them across the north of the Dead Sea. And can I just point out this little arrow here because I’m going to be talking about the El Karan in a moment. When you see the photographs, we’re talking about an area about two miles north of the Dead Sea and about a mile to the east of the River Jordan.
As they headed east from here, they had an opportunity to pick up two different roads. One of them was called the King’s Highway and the other was known as the Way of the Wilderness.
Route of the Exodus
Richard Wellington:
If you take a look at the route of the Exodus, this is taken from the maps in the new LDS scriptures (Exodus 13:17–18).
The route of the Exodus came across the plain of Jericho to pick up the Way of the Wilderness. Then, at this portion, it came down to join up with the King’s Highway, which eventually brought them down to Ezion-Geber on the Gulf of Aqaba (1 Kings 9:26).
Could this be called traveling in the wilderness? Well, we believe that it certainly could.
John the Baptist’s Preaching Site
Richard Wellington:
I mentioned this area known as Wadi Kharrar, on the north of the Dead Sea. This was the area where John the Baptist was preaching (John 1:28).
Recently, the church has been found at Wadi Kharrar which marks the place where John the Baptist preached and where Elijah was taken up into heaven (2 Kings 2:11).
I had an opportunity to go and visit that site in Jordan a few years ago. At that point it wasn’t open to the public, but it may well be open now. If any of you ever go to Jordan, you may want to see it.
This is the church here, and on the other side of the wadi there is a small building which marks the area where John the Baptist preached. This is where Elijah is meant to have been taken up into heaven. This is according to the Pilgrim of Bordeaux, who wrote about this in 333 AD.
Traveling with Camels
Richard Wellington:
So, to bring them to the Way of the Wilderness, why would we say they traveled in the Way of the Wilderness?
Well, we believe that when Lehi departed, he used camels. This isn’t our idea—Nibley argues very ably to say this. Just the tents they would have lived in would have been far too heavy for a man to carry.
When you traveled by camel, one of the things you were looking for was a route that was flat and where the sand was compacted enough that the camels could travel easily. Camel trains used to use the Way of the Wilderness here even though there was less water, less rainfall, and fewer floods, because it was an easier route for camels to pass over.
The King’s Highway
Richard Wellington:
As they headed further south, they would have joined into the King’s Highway. The King’s Highway is an area in Jordan which travels through mountains in its northern portion. The route was there because it is an area of highest rainfall, and so the majority of biblical towns and archaeological sites in Jordan actually sit on the King’s Highway.
There was lots of farmland there, and it was well populated. So, it wouldn’t really have counted as wilderness, per se.
But when you get to the southern portion, the rainfall here drops to less than 100 millimeters a year and it’s far less populated. So, heading onto the King’s Highway there, we feel would still be considered traveling in the wilderness.
This is the modern highway which follows the route of the old highway across Wadi Mujib. And at the bottom of this image there’s an old Roman bridge which marks the site of the old road.
Dwelling in a Tent
Richard Wellington:
As we did this journey, we were able to gather a number of insights which have been useful. I’m going to share just a few of them with you.
One of the things that Nephi mentions as they travel is the fact that his father dwells in a tent (1 Nephi 2:15). I had often wondered why he kept reminding us of this.
One wondered if it was a way of showing that his father was some wealthy sheikh, some tribal leader, or whatever.
As I was traveling in a place called Ajloun, near the Way of the Wilderness, I came across this tent and thought, “Well, I’ll take a photograph.”
One of the things you have to know in Saudi Arabia: when you take photos, it’s a very quick way to get arrested. I wasn’t sure what the rules were in Jordan.
As I went to take a photograph of this tent, a woman came running out shouting and screaming at me and I thought, “Oh no, here we go again.” Then her husband came out, and she started shouting at him. He ran in, got his gutra and his agal, and put them on. He came out and stood there as smartly as he could to pose for this photo—which is very unusual for us.
Lehi Dwelling in a Tent
Richard Wellington:
As I walked past the tent, we began to talk a little bit in my kitchen Arabic. One of the things I couldn’t help noticing was that everything this man owned could have been wrapped up and put into just one of the boxes I had on the back seat of my car.
This man—everything he owned—wouldn’t even have fitted on the seat of one of my cars. I suddenly began to realize that as a Bedouin, this man was incredibly poor.
I think what Nephi is telling us here is that his father left his country estate, he left all of his wealth, and lived as a poor man (1 Nephi 2:15). Yet never do we hear him complaining about that. Laman and Lemuel certainly do, but at no point does Lehi complain about this sudden change in status.
This was one of those insights that came to me which I thought was worth sharing.
Combined Experience in Arabia
George Potter:
Now, one of the strengths that Richard and I have—and it’s not degrees in archaeology—is the fact that we’ve lived, combined, in Saudi Arabia for almost 30 years. We’ve traveled approximately 75,000 miles doing this research.
So instead of just talking right now, what I’d like to do is take you from where the King’s Highway ends and into the Way of the Wilderness at the northern tip of Arabia. I’m going to take you down to the Valley of Lemuel.
We’re going to take you there on video. As Richard said, you cannot set up tripods and do full production. What you’re going to see is made on a Sony camera, but we’re going to try to take you there.
Characteristics of the Valley of Lemuel
Narration:
The place where Lehi made his first camp is among the most uninviting deserts on earth. “Detestable” certainly describes the place.
The United States Geological Survey and the Saudi Arabian Department of Water Resources concluded that Saudi Arabia may be the world’s largest country without any perennial rivers or streams.
So where is the fertile Valley of Lemuel in a land described as “hell”? And where is its river of flowing water in riverless Arabia (1 Nephi 2:6–9)?
I became determined to find Lehi’s trail to the River of Laman.
Nephi’s Descriptions
From what we read in the Book of Mormon, we reasoned that the Valley of Lemuel must be a mountain canyon.
- Nephi wrote that the valley was “in the borders,” meaning the mountains. The Arabic word for mountain is jebel, which in Hebrew conjugates as gebel, meaning “the borders.” The mountains in northwest Arabia are called the Hijaz—literally “the barriers” or “borders.”
- The valley had a small stream flowing continually through it. Nephi indicated that it was a “river of water.” Dr. Hugh Nibley clarified that this expression refers only to small local streams. Therefore, the River of Laman must have been a small local stream, not a major river.
- The valley of Lemuel opened onto the fountain of the Red Sea, meaning the Gulf of Aqaba (1 Nephi 2:8–9).
- The Valley of Lemuel was fertile. Nephi wrote that they gathered many kinds of fruit and even grain. Yet the Saudi Ministry of Agriculture has classified all lands near the Gulf of Aqaba as 0% arable due to rocky conditions.
Following Nephi’s Instructions
Nephi wrote that they “traveled in the borders near the shore of the Red Sea” (1 Nephi 2:5). Replacing “borders” with “mountains,” we read:
“And he came down by the mountains near the shore of the Red Sea, and he traveled in the wilderness in the mountains which are nearer the Red Sea.”
Indeed, this is what is found in Midian—two ranges of mountains near the Red Sea, with elevations over 6,000 feet.
Nephi also wrote that they arrived at the river after traveling three days in the wilderness. With camels traveling 20–25 miles a day, that places the campsite 60–75 miles from the northern end of the Gulf of Aqaba.
Discovery of Wadi Tayyib al-Ism
As we traveled along the shore, the path matched Nephi’s description for about 45 miles. Then the shoreline mountains dropped directly into the sea.
At this point, the only wadi (valley) into the mountains was within a mile of where the mountains reached the sea. If we were on Lehi’s trail, the prophet would have had only one choice—to enter this valley.
The valley was called Wadi Tayyib al-Ism [transcribed in audio as “Wadi Taya Balism”].
Characteristics of Wadi Tayyib al-Ism
We noticed three key features:
- It had no exits. If Lehi entered this valley, he would have had to follow it to its end.
- It provided excellent footing for camels.
- It fit the 60–75 mile range from Aqaba.
But initially, we saw no water, no vegetation, and no fruit trees—only typical Midian desert landscape.
As the wadi turned south, instead of dead-ending, we found an oasis with date palms. Arabs say that the date palm “has its feet in the water and its head in the fire.”
A few hundred yards farther, the wadi opened into a spectacular granite canyon where a spring fed a small perennial river.
I visited the river seven times in different seasons, including after 14 months of drought. The water was always flowing.
Fertility of the Valley
Lehi’s family gathered seeds, fruit, and grain (1 Nephi 8:1). Hundreds of date palms grow here, along with tamarisk, acacia, and other fruit-bearing plants.
Near the north side of the oasis, just outside the canyon, there are ruins of a large permanent campsite—stone enclosures, walls, and pottery shards. Archaeologists surveyed the site in 1980 and cataloged it as site 200-81, dating to the Iron Age (late 2nd to mid-1st millennium BC).
The Frankincense Trail
Richard Wellington:
How would Lehi have traveled from this valley to southern Arabia where he built the ship (1 Nephi 18:1)?
The answer lies in the frankincense trade. Frankincense grew in southern Arabia, in Oman and Yemen, and at that time was worth more than gold. Caravans of thousands of camels traveled from Babylon, Damascus, and Gaza to Oman along a single trail—the frankincense trail.
One branch of this trail passed within 10 miles of the Valley of Lemuel. Jeremiah and Ezekiel wrote of the frankincense trade and named towns along that trail (Jeremiah 6:20; Ezekiel 27:19).
Certainly, Lehi—who appears to have been a merchant—would have known about it.
Water was available only along this trade route, at fortified wells and oases. Agricultural villages grew rich supplying caravans, like California gold-rush suppliers. For Lehi’s family to survive in Arabia, they would have had to join this route.
Why Lehi Had to Use the Frankincense Trail
George Potter:
So they knew they could find the fodder at those halts. Also, the trail took the course the way it did because it avoided the mountains. Some might not realize that camels cannot travel over mountains. They cannot travel over sand. They have to have flat, level courses. They’re very talkative animals, and they choose. Of course, for that reason Lehi couldn’t wander into Arabia because there are mountains there.
Protection from bandits. Jeremiah wrote that the Arabs were notorious highway bandits, robbers (Jeremiah 3:2). If they stayed on the trail, they’d receive the protection of the tribe as long as they paid tribute, and they’d also, of course, have the protection of being in the forts that were at the wells.
And finally, they had to have taken the trail because, believe me, nobody wandered into those Arab countries at that time and just found their own route. Every Bedouin—as I have found, because I’ve been reported to the police a lot of times by the Bedouins who have also treated me very well—every Bedouin is a spy for the local tribe.
If Lehi had just wandered into Arabia, his whereabouts would have been known in a day. Arabia might be barren, but it’s not unpopulated along these trails in that area of Arabia. Now, had Lehi been caught in a tribal land, his family would have been imprisoned—enslaved, women and children—and he probably would have been executed, as many ancient accounts tell of that having happened.
Reconstructing the Route (Sources, Maps, GPS)
George Potter:
Now, one of the problems with doing our explorations of Lehi’s trail is that no one apparently had ever tried to retrace the Gaza branch of the Frankincense Trail. So, we decided we would.
That meant I went to the library. I did a lot of research on place names and ancient trail routes. I then gave those to Richard Wellington, who then took the distances and approximate trail routes and located the wells that currently exist—or I should say ancient wells that are currently known on maps—and he traced those onto TPC maps, which are used by pilots to navigate, and he then reckoned the GPS courses.
The next step then was to actually go out into Arabia and try to locate those, look at TPC maps, see where the terrain went, and then try to plot where the trail would have been. And that’s what we did with our GPSs.
How do we know that we were correct? Well, we found all the khaylars [spoken term for waypoints/halts]. We found all the wells. So we were a little pleased with that. We’re proud of that because it was quite an accomplishment, actually.
Book of Mormon Consistency with the Trail
George Potter:
Now, is there any evidence in the Book of Mormon that Lehi took the Frankincense Trail—the branch of the Frankincense Trail? We think so.
First of all, it says that they traveled “in the borders” through what Nephi calls “the most fertile parts,” and then you don’t hear “the borders” anymore, and we know “borders” means mountains (1 Nephi 16:14–16 ).
What you find here on the actual trail is that there are mountains at the beginning, and then after Medina [modern Al-Madinah], the trail left the mountains and “borders” are never spoken of again. So Nephi’s account is consistent with that.
Next, Nephi talks about the fact that they’re going through territory that is ever more declining in fertility. He writes that they “traveled many days” and came to the “most fertile parts.” Then they “traveled many days” and came to the “more fertile parts.” And then they “traveled many days” and had to stop and hunt for food—so apparently there was no cultivation in that area because they were left to hunt for their food (1 Nephi 16:14, 16, 17 ).
And this is precisely what you find along the Frankincense Trail.
Cultivation Gradient Along the Route
George Potter:
What Richard and I did—way there in the back—there’s a bunch of little blue dots here that indicate where there’s cultivation on the TPC maps. What we did is we took all the TPC maps for Saudi Arabia—these are the ones pilots use—and everywhere there was cultivation, we put a blue dot.
As you notice along the trail here, we’re going from “most fertile” to then places where there’s no cultivation. In the northern part of the trail, there is an area of cultivation every 11 miles. From Medina down to Turba [modern Turabah], there’s only an area of cultivation every 50 miles. And from Turba down to Najeron [modern Najran], there’s one every 162 miles.
This indicates, again, the declining fertility. If you take the shoreline route, you find it’s just the opposite: you have more barren area up here and the fertility zone south. So that’s consistent again with what we found along the terrain of the Gaza branch of the Frankincense Trail.
“Shazer” on the Route
George Potter:
And also, the Book of Mormon names of Shazer and “most fertile parts” are still to be found along the trail today. Can’t explain all that. Would you try Shazer?
Identifying Shazer
Richard Wellington:
Okay. Thanks, George. Now, if you remember, when they leave the valley, they travel in a south-southeast direction, travel for four days, and find a place which Lehi calls Shazer (1 Nephi 16:13 ).
Shazer actually took us two years to be able to find, but once we found it, we wondered how we ever missed it. And what happened was we plotted all the wells around the area of the valley that would have been four days’ distance and decided to visit them all.
This wasn’t proving particularly fruitful until about the same time I started looking at work by Alois Musil, who traveled extensively in northern Arabia, and George was looking at Daldal al-Wahhab’s work on the trade routes of Arabia. We found that they both mentioned a route at the same time. One of them, Musil, called the al-Līsā [spoken as “Alisia”], and al-Hamdānī names the al-Ma‘ār [spoken as “Almar”], which both turn out to be names of the Ghazza (Gaza) Frankincense Trail.
They mapped out where the stops were, and this enabled us to look. We noticed that Ezion-Geber [ʿEtsyon-Gever]/Aqaba is the northern end of the trail, which we know Lehi traveled on (1 Kings 9:26). The next town is Midian, which is Al-Badʿ [spoken as “Albada”], which was only 18 miles from the valley.
And we thought, well, if they went to Al-Badʿ, what would have been the next trail port that they would have stopped in? And that was called Al-ʿAqraʿ [spoken as “Al Agra”].
Scouting a Candidate for “Shazer”
Richard Wellington:
And so we looked at Al-ʿAqraʿ [spoken as “Alagra”] as a possible site for Shazer (1 Nephi 16:13). It’s 60 miles from the valley. Now, you might say, well, why would it take four days if they could do 20 miles a day? But if you remember, they’d been in the valley for a long period of time. It appears they weren’t given any warning to break camp. So we assume that would have taken them at least half a day to do, as they’d been dwelling there for quite a long period of time, and they would have had to have set up camp. So the journey could have taken place within a four-day period and still be consistent with Nephi’s account.
Now Shazer we know is in the borders near the Red Sea. So we’re looking for a place which is still in the mountains.
From Al-Badʿ (Midian) Along the Trail
Richard Wellington:
Let me just run over there in the trail. We’ve had them traveling in the wilderness—this is the wilderness where John the Baptist preached—down the Way of the Wilderness, traveling to the valley here, and this is the Gaza branch of the Frankincense Trail.
We think they would have headed here. At this point is Al-Badʿ (Midian), where Jethro was the high priest (Exodus 2:16 ). Then the trail—I’ll show you some photos in a moment—runs along the west side of the mountains and then takes a turn into the mountains just here. This is where Al-ʿAqraʿ [spoken as “Albagghar/Alagra”] was found.
This is Al-Badʿ. Obviously these remains don’t go back to Nephi’s time, but this is where the water is found, and so it would have been where the town would have been in Lehi’s time. And then you would leave Al-Badʿ and you would travel next to the mountains.
There you can see tents of Bedouins, and you get an idea of the size of the mountains from the trees in the distance there.
What to Look For in “Shazer” (Name Clues)
Richard Wellington:
We get a few clues as to what we’re looking for when we find Shazer. As a name, groom tells us that shajer means a valley or area abounding with trees or shrubs, and Nibley refers to the same thing. Also, Shazer in Hebrew means twisting or intertwining. This may give us a clue as to why Lehi calls the place Shazer. We were looking for a valley with trees.
Wadi Agharr: A Narrow, Tree-Filled Valley
Richard Wellington:
As you travel along next to the mountains, you come to a point where there’s a valley that intersects your route. You can see there’s some greenery there—you can begin to get the idea there are some trees here—and as you move into the valley, into Wadi Agharr [spoken as “Wadiaga”], as you look towards the sea—this is a burnt-out slide, but it’s the sea there—you see the trees heading off into the distance. And as you look towards the east, towards the mountains, you have the same thing. Musil describes at the beginning of the 20th century that this oasis extended for 18 miles.
Each side of the valley is actually quite close. It’s a very narrow, thin valley. So it seemed to fit the description of a valley with trees extremely well.
There’s another town called Shazer on the Frankincense Trail down in Oman. And in Oman, Shazer means a cleft. We were interested to find that ghar/agharr—where the name Wadi Agharr comes from—also means a cleft in the ground. So it may well be that Lehi was actually creating a very clever wordplay here using Arabic and Hebrew to explain the name for a valley which was intertwining, intersecting the route they were on, that was a valley with trees, and perhaps also included a play on the Arabic name for the valley they were traveling in.
Archaeological Density in Midian
Richard Wellington:
This is something you saw earlier. Would this—could this—have been where the trading halt was? This shows archaeological sites in Midian. This is Wadi Tayyib al-Ism here with the Iron Age remains (encampment). This is where we think the valley was, and this is Midian itself—you can see the number of remains there.
You can see that Wadi Sharma/Wadi Kharrar [map label noted as alternative for local naming] has by far the highest concentration of archaeological remains, many of which date back to the Iron Age. So we know that this valley has been fertile for a very long period of time.
We were able to find some of the archaeological remains there which probably equated to the caravanserai that they would have traveled through.
And one of the things you have to remember—I’ll show you lots of pictures of the trees, and I don’t want you to get the idea that Arabia is just full of trees. This is the standard terrain in Midian. To find a valley of trees is extremely unusual.
Textual Fits: Hunting and Wildlife
Richard Wellington:
Very briefly—Nephi mentions a number of things in the text, and it was interesting to us that all of these things fit into what you find in that period of time in that area. He mentions, for example, when they get to Shazer, they go to hunt (1 Nephi 16:14 ). Agatharchides mentions that the people who live in that area—the Bat Zanis [spoken]—the people who lived in Wadi al-ʿAla/al-Badʿ (Midian), right next to where Shazer is, lived by hunting land animals.
We were told by the Arabs that still the best hunting of ibex was found just there. If you remember when Nephi is going back to bring back Ishmael’s family, that Laman and Lemuel have had enough and they tie him up to be eaten by wild animals (1 Nephi 7:16). We’re told that one disadvantage of having all of these animals to hunt was that you had so many wild animals—lions, wolves, and fuhūd (rendered elsewhere as panthers). In fact, the last lion in Saudi Arabia was killed in Midian in 1926. So again, it fits perfectly with the story that Nephi gives us.
“Most Fertile Parts” on the TPC Maps
George Potter:
Thank you, Richard. In fact, the only place on the TPC maps where it says “trees,” it’s right there. Next, Nephi said they left Shazer and they traveled in the most fertile parts of the wilderness (1 Nephi 16:14, 16). “Most fertile parts of Saudi Arabia.” It just seems odd that Joseph Smith is a farmer—I think he would have used that word very selectively.
This is the terrain we went through for about 100 miles until we came to some halts.
These halts start near the old Frankincense town of Dadan [spoken as “Dan”]. It’s a chain of villages about a day’s travel by camel apart, and they form a ring like this. Along each of those villages there was then a village and agricultural area.
Since Ramesses II, that area has been called Ḥajar/Ḥigr [spoken “Hagar/Hagar”], which means farms. We went to the Dictionary of Arabic Topography and Place Names by Nigel Groom, the expert on Arabian topography and place names. We found that there were alternative spellings for Shazer. Each of those, he says, means a fertile part of land. So that area was called a fertile part of land.
Again, these are the villages along there. Here are some examples of some of those villages that you come across, which is rather shocking when you travel through hundreds of miles of desert and all of a sudden come across these bi-coastal areas.
Early Islamic Reference to “Fertile Parts”
George Potter:
What I found of most interest is that the Prophet Muhammad, in the sixth century, referred to this area with one of these place names—al-Arim [spoken “areim”], plural—which literally meant the fertile parts of land. He also applied a special tax—an additional quarter tax—on those villages because they were the most fertile areas in all of his empire.
It’s easy to see why Nephi would describe that part of the trail as the most fertile parts.
Wrapping Up; Probability Thought Experiment
Richard Wellington:
Wait—time to wind it up. Okay, we don’t have time to go through all of this in too much detail; we apologize. It was amazing to us, over a six-year period as we traveled this, how so many of the things that Joseph spoke about and wrote about in the Book of Mormon actually are there.
So, I’m going to have to ask you to believe me here when I head down to the very end of the trail, and I’m just going to run through this so you can get an idea of some of the things that we would love to be able to talk to you about—and you’re more than welcome to read about in the book, which is at the back of the room.
And if you’ll just excuse me, I’ll get us down to the very end here.
Now, what we did was we looked at all of the statements that were made. George, while I’m talking, can you just get into the final portion? We looked at all of the statements made in the Book of Mormon by Nephi—geographical assertions: a river in a valley; the valley being “firm, steadfast, and immovable”; all the kinds of things that, if Joseph Smith were making up the book—think about where it’d be very easy to prove him wrong.
We decided that we would try and work out what the odds would be of Joseph Smith guessing this—because one of the arguments placed against the Book of Mormon, since virtually its publication, was that it was an object of Joseph Smith’s imagination.
So let me ask you: what do you think the chances are of Joseph Smith, who had never been to Arabia, guessing that there was a continually flowing river in Arabia? What chance would you give him? One in a million?
—“Depends on whether he read Herodotus. He mentions a river running into the Red Sea in Arabia in his day.”
Okay. So here we come. We’ve got somebody who says, “Well, Joseph Smith obviously could read ancient Greek—didn’t tell anybody.” Well, in English, Joseph Smith’s day. Okay. Was it in Manchester library? So it has to be in Joseph Smith’s area, and he has to be able to go and do this. And he also has to know that the river is in a valley, which Herodotus doesn’t mention, which is “firm, steadfast, and immovable.” There are a number of other things he has to get in order.
We can say that maybe he can guess some of these—maybe you can guess some of these. And we’re saying 50/50—would that be fair to Joseph Smith to guess that?
Well, let’s say he had a coin in his pocket, and every time he made a statement he tossed the coin—and heads he was right and tails he was wrong. He guessed Shazer as a name—heads he got Shazer, tails he didn’t get Shazer. That’s fair enough, isn’t it?
So, what we get to is this—this is the Hubble Deep Field picture, and we’re going to come on to that in a moment. What were Joseph’s chances of guessing this? There were 81 assertions that Nephi made—physical assertions—and we claim that we found 80 of those. The only thing we didn’t find is Ishmael’s grave, but we think we can put you to about two miles from where it probably was, with a name Nihm/Nehhm (NHM) to this day in Yemen, about two miles from the Frankincense Trail.
These are the kinds of assertions that we’ve spoken about—and not only do they have to be there, they have to be in the right order, with the right names, the right directions, the right distances, and they have to fit with 7th–6th century BC Arabia.
Well, 50/50—what are the chances? By the time Joseph Smith read Shazer, chances would be about 1 in 8 million guessing that; by the time you get to Mehlem/Maḥram? [spoken “Mayhem”], you’re talking about 1 in ~140 trillion; by the time you get to Bountiful, the numbers get too big for me to say; and by the time they sail away to the Americas, Joseph Smith’s chances of guessing here are pretty large—2.5 × 10²⁴.
When numbers get that big, it’s difficult to say. So, let’s go back to the Hubble Deep Field picture. That’s a part of Ursa Major—there aren’t any stars, which in the sky equates to about the size of a dime held at arm’s length. This is the kind of size of sky we’re looking at—pretty small piece of sky. The reason they chose it: there are no stars there; they could look out of our galaxy and elsewhere.
One of the things you’ll notice—could we have the light; this is kind of dim, thanks very much—is that what we’re looking at here is a whole series not of stars, but of galaxies. If you look anywhere in space, you would see that many galaxies—that kind of density and concentration of galaxies. It’s said that there are 10⁹ galaxies now that we can see, and each of those are considered to have 10⁹ stars—that makes 2.5 × 10¹⁹ stars in the universe.
Now, if you imagine that we have a laser pointer—and this big sister here—and I go out and we can see the northern hemisphere and the southern hemisphere, and we close our eyes and we both point into space: the chances of you and I actually pointing to the same star in the same galaxy in either hemisphere are 100,000 times more likely than Joseph Smith being able to guess these 81 points in order, giving him 50/50 chance. And I think we’ve already seen from some other people they feel 50/50 is probably more than fair.
And so, we would suggest that it may well be—and we certainly believe—that what we read in First Nephi is, in fact, a firsthand account of somebody who in the 7th century BC actually traveled from Jerusalem along a trade trail known to exist at that time and describes the things they see. And if you’d like to see them for yourself and read in a little more detail, then we’d refer you to the book at the back. Thank you very much.
